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March 26, 2007

Are Corporate Retirement Plans a Bad Deal?

This is my first post in a new series which will analyze the retirement planning industry. I will cover 401(k), 403(b), and other (less popular) vehicles in my discussions. My hope is to unravel to some extent the cost structure of these plans and help corporate executives, business developers, and plan participants to gain a stronger understanding of how their retirement funds are being handled. It’s no secret that retirement plans are a huge mystery, even to those who administer them and preach about their benefits. Much of my research is my own, and stems from reading hundreds of retirement plan documents and speaking to people who invest their hard earned money in these plans. The other portion of my research comes from Matthew Hutcheson, an authority in the field of unmasking qualified retirement plans. I’d like to thank him in advance for his extensive knowledge and research in this area. His paper on hidden fees in qualified retirement plans is outstanding and can be found, along with other interesting materials, at the 401k Help Center.

In this first entry, I’d like to talk about what, exactly, the problem is. I’ll follow up in a few days with a post on the details of how retirement plans are structured and where you can find these hidden fees. Finally, I’ll jump into potential solutions to the problem.

Let us note that the issue of corporate retirement plans, especially those which we self-direct, is becoming increasingly important. A pattern is emerging in which corporations are shifting their benefits structure from the old line “defined-benefit” (i.e. pension) plans, to more modern “defined-contribution” (i.e. 401k) plans. This is a crucial distinction to understand. In the old days, 30 years of service to a major corporation may have been rewarded with checks which could support you and your family into your late years. Companies have been discovering that making these promises can be a financial disaster. If revenue and profits don’t keep pace with the promised level of benefits, a company can go bankrupt while trying to make these payments to retired workers. The solution, which should make sense, is to avoid these somewhat unpredictable financial obligations. Rather, have employees re-focus onto current, self-directed retirement plans. Employers can motivate their workers by offering a match (free money) as an incentive. Understanding this transition within the retirement arena is very important. It creates a sense of urgency to the problems surrounding costs and fees within the plans.

There are other factors, such as increasing life-expectancies and decreasing government benefits which add fuel to the debates about self-directed retirement savings.

Let me take a moment to answer a question which I commonly field at this point. “Russell, why do we focus on fees, costs, and structure, rather than on investment options? Who cares about costs and fees if you can select the best funds in the right sectors? The answer to this question is quite simple. Over the long-run, on average, very few people outperform the major indexes (i.e. the S&P 500). In the short-run, managers might pick the right sectors and look great, but if you study their performance over five-year, ten-year, and longer periods of time, things looks a little different. In fact, statistics show that people who chase performance come out way behind over the long-term. If you’re interested in pure speculation, do it with a portion of your money which you can afford to lose. Don’t do it with little Meg’s college savings fund. Thus, we focus on costs and fees because these are items which we can actually control. If we reduce our average expenses from 2% to .5%, we’ve effectively improved our return by 1.5% per year.

So, now that we’ve established why the 401k and other defined-contribution retirement plans are important. We’ve also mentioned why we focus on costs and fees, rather than on performance. Now let’s get back to the problem. Americans aren’t getting their fair share of market returns! Part of the problem is the debatable fact that the average American may not be knowledgeable enough to manage his or her own retirement plans. We’ll talk about this in a moment. The other, larger issue is that financial professionals, namely brokerage firms and plan advisers, may not be adequately disclosing all the fees and expenses associated with the plan. What’s particularly ironic is that plan participants--the same people who are paying these hidden (and often superfluous) fees, and taking on the market risk--are totally unaware of the problems.

The average American may not be capable of managing his/her own retirement plans - If you think about it, what’s so great about having a self-directed retirement plan? In practice, it encourages a majority of people--who don’t know much about investing and personal finance--to make important decisions regarding their long-term financial security. Ultimately, that translates into a lot of confusion. You could easily ask three people the best way to invest retirement funds and get three completely different answers. Also, I’ve noticed that individuals tend to switch in and out of funds more frequently with self-directed accounts, resulting in lower performance and higher expenses. This doesn’t sound like an advantage, does it? In theory it could be a good thing, but only once investor education becomes dramatically better.

A few financial professionals may not always place your best interests first - There is a long list of people who get in between an investor trying to buy an investment. At the most obvious level, retirement plans, like non-retirement investments, often involve commissions and fees paid to the representatives who help implement the plan. Often these representatives help “educate” the participants about details of the plan. They also host enrollment meetings, field questions, etc. There is certainly some value to these services, but the extent of that value, and the price tag on it, may be questionable. These guys sometimes receive ongoing commissions and fees as well, something we’ll get more into in the next post. At a deeper level, there are more costs and fees involved with the fund itself picking and choosing investments. This includes trading costs, paying rents, paying research analysts, etc. The stuff you never think about gets sucked out in the form of expenses which ultimately reduce your return.

The follow-up post will discuss what these fees, costs, and expenses are in more detail.

As always, feel free to e-mail me with questions or comments.

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
(212)752-4343 *31
rbailyn@premieradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

March 21, 2007

Listen to my Podcast with WallSt.net

I recently recorded a Podcast with with Kristin Friedersdorf of Wallst.net. Her past interviews have included Michelle Leder and Ramit Sethi. Below is a list of some questions which we covered in the interview. I hope you’ll find it interesting.

•Why did I start the blog?
•Why not go with a traditional website?
•How is my blog different from others?
•What sort of content do I cover?
•What are my future plans for the blog and my business?
•Who are my favorite bloggers?

I also talk about my upcoming book, “Navigating the Financial Blogosphere: How to Benefit from Free Information on the Internet.” I haven’t spoken much about the book up through this point because I just recently finished the project. It will be available in major bookstores and on Amazon.com this September. I will have a section of the blog dedicated to providing updates and fielding questions and comments from my readers.

Enjoy!

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
(212)752-4343 *31
rbailyn@premieradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

March 19, 2007

March Newsletter from Premier Financial Advisors

On February 27th the Chinese stock market plunged 9% on fears of increased government intervention in the booming Chinese economy. Combined with some disappointing news about durable goods spending, the broad market averages declined sharply, erasing many of our gains for the year. Two weeks later, the markets are still jittery, with the Dow swaying near that psychologically important 12,000 level. The latest concerns are regarding sub-prime lending--an important concept which I’d like to explain.

Back in 2001, 2002, and 2003, the economy was trying to recover from September 11th attacks and the bursting of the tech bubble. One way to jolt an economy when the overall sentiment is bad is to lower interest rates to the point where people will spend money just because it’s so cheap to borrow. During this time period, where money was exiting stocks and entering real estate, people were treating the housing market like it was a giant secret. Besides the low cost of borrowing, speculation was further driven by mortgage products offering no money down and adjustable rates. Many of the people buying these homes had a less than perfect (i.e. sub-prime) borrowing profile.

The danger with these products (which often isn’t properly disclosed or understood) arises 3, 5, perhaps 7-years later when these “adjustable rates” reset at a much higher rate. A payment of $1,500/month could jump to $2,500/month if you locked in during 2002, when rates were especially low. The result is that more people are defaulting on their loan payments and trying to unload homes which they don’t have any real equity in. This is a dangerous scenario for the housing market as people tend to rush for the exit at the same time.

Why does this affect the stock market?

In the innovative world we live in, mortgages get packaged up and sold to investors. The “securitization” of mortgages is a fairly new concept but helps create liquidity for lenders. It also offers a diversification tool for investment portfolios. In essence, you could be receiving your own interest payments if you own securitized mortgages within your portfolio. What’s crucial to remember is that many of these sub-prime lenders are companies which trade on the stock exchanges. These companies, along with larger financial firms which are involved in some aspect of the “packaging” process, rely on consumers making those monthly payments. If they don’t, or the payment consistency gets steadily worse, it ultimately affects a larger pool of corporate earnings. It’s sort of like a domino effect. As the default rates increase, it’s bad for everybody involved. At the broadest level, more homes could get listed for sale, resulting in lower prices for sellers and potentially better prices for buyers.

How you should handle these risks as an investor?

Just remember why you decide to keep money in the housing and stock markets. It’s as an investment. If you can’t handle market swings or think about the value of your house every day, it may not be the best investment for you. Price volatility and daily fluctuation is part of the game. The truth is, it probably shouldn’t be spoken about so much, but that’s the nature of the media. They keep you glued to the paper or screen to the point where you actually worry about things which you shouldn’t. I’m sure this brings in great advertising revenue for the television networks, but it’s not ultimately worth your time. Focus on how you earn money, and try not to get sucked into well-publicized stories. Most importantly, once you create a smart financial plan, stick to it!

As always, I’m here for questions and comments.

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
(212)752-4343 *31
rbailyn@premieradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

March 14, 2007

Book Review: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing is about the benefits of index investing. This should be expected considering it was written by John Bogle. For those of you who don’t recognize the name, John Bogle started The Vanguard Group in 1974. Bogle is one of the most important minds behind the passive investing school of thought. Bogle and his growing band of followers believe that focusing on low-cost investing and tax efficiency is a better strategy than chasing performance. On most issues, I agree. His logic is simple and clear and his examples are light enough for anyone to understand.

This particular text is part of the “Little Book Big Profit” series, all of which can be defined by their clear and concise writing style. I did find it somewhat funny that this book reaches a point (index investing is best) which is directly at odds with the conclusions of the other two books in the series. The first, written by Chris Browne, concludes that investing for value is best. The original book in the series, written by Joel Greenblatt, uncovers a strategy which the author claims actually beats the market. I suppose it is coincidental and playfully ironic that so many brilliant minds can conclude such different things. If you want a quick overview of index investing which is probably worth its weight in gold, pick up this book. I was finished with it in 2 ½ hours.

The book has 18 chapters, most of which hit on the same point from a different angle. We learn in the second chapter that accidentally developing a fascination with stock market returns is dangerous and ignores what the game is really all about. Bogle believes stock investors are ultimately trying to gain an advantage through the long-term economics of corporate business. In other words, buy index funds. Chapter five goes into the unfortunate but natural pattern of chasing after performance which many people fall into with their actively-managed funds. In other words, buy index funds. Chapter ten talks about the underperformance of equity funds which are recommended by brokers and advisors. I can’t say I enjoy this side play on broker bashing, but his point is still that investors should buy index funds. In this case, to avoid having to make decisions as to how, when, and what type of funds to purchase. We could play this game for each chapter, but you get the point. Bogle covers every counter argument which one might make about why index investing isn’t necessarily best.

One chapter which caught my attention was #14. Bogle talks about the index fund craze and how different companies are trying to take advantage of it. He mentions the new trend towards fundamentally-weighted indexes (i.e. trying to beat the performance of market-cap indexes). You can actually hear the distaste in Bogle’s voice when he talks about money managers who promote fundamental-indexing. To be quite frank, I use both market-cap and fundamental-weight indexes in my practice. I think both have something to offer and I don’t place one higher than the other. Market-cap indexes have been around for much longer, but fundamental-weighting is a very easy argument to make. I found it interesting how Bogle decided to address this issue, if not just as a tool to dismiss it. He even ends the chapter by quoting Jeremy Siegel, a Wharton Professor who sided with Bogle in the early 90’s but has since become an authority in the opposite camp.

The following chapter hits on exchange-traded funds--the obvious competition for Bogle and his index mutual funds. Bogle takes the stance that ETFs aren’t as good as index funds because they encourage trading--which ultimately hurts the investor. Without reading the chapter, I would find it tough to argue that a disciplined investor isn’t better off (spending less money) in an ETF. That being said, I agree with most of Bogle’s criticisms and I actually expand upon similar points in my own book.

In conclusion, this was a great text. Simple, accurate, and informative. My criticisms? Perhaps a bit self-promotional, even if not in the most direct way. But John Bogle is an investing legend and I’m thrilled to read and review any of his works.

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St. #402
New York, NY 10022
(212)752-4343 *31
rbailyn@premieradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

March 06, 2007

"Missed Fortune" Financial Planning

Have you ever heard of this concept? I had a potential client contact me recently to get my take on whether “Missed Fortune” financial planning is as brilliant as its famed promoter (Doug Andrews) claims it is. Like many other financial advisors (and bloggers) I’m going to award Andrew’s concept a NO from my perspective. Granted, I’m sometimes referred to as a “conservative planner” but Andrew’s concepts seem more than risky--some are downright dangerous.

The quick summary: This concept is based on the premise that paying down your mortgage to eliminate debt isn’t necessarily the smartest money management technique. Rather, take either a line of credit against your home, or a second mortgage, and invest the money some place where it can produce returns. Your investment return is the spread between your interest rate on the home equity line of credit and the (presumably) higher return investing the money elsewhere. While the author often uses low-cost investment products as an example of where one might invest the money, you could be putting that money into any investment vehicle which you’re confident and comfortable with.

I will grant the strategy these three praises: it could, in theory, be a good decision for someone with an aggressive risk tolerance who believes that stock markets will continue their long-term history of positive returns. It could also be good for someone who can invest the money in themselves (for example a business of some sort) which they otherwise wouldn’t have the start-up capital for. I also think a careful application of insurance to the strategy could hedge the risk of loss-of-principal.

The giant question mark is whether the average person taking out a home equity line of credit can consistently earn a high enough return to pay back the interest costs, earn a profit, and sleep well at night. It is this “full cycle” which causes my hesitation to grant an approval. I think, especially in a rising interest-rate environment, these assumptions are quite dangerous. If the equity line (which is usually variable) costs you 7% and the market returns 8%, you’ve only made 1%. That assumes the advisor you’re working with isn’t taking too much of a bite from your invested capital. Using an expected return figure higher than 8% may be necessary to justify the concept. However, most advisors understand that using high figures (i.e. 12% or more) makes the illustration look better at the expense of unrealistic assumptions.

My advice is to keep a healthy balance between paying down your mortgage and investing your money in various other places. If you’re younger and oriented towards risk, you may want to play around with the equity in your home. If you’re older, looking towards retirement and very proud that you paid off your home, I’d steer clear of these “Missed Fortunes.” You might try setting up an automatic investment plan to utilize the capital you would have otherwise dedicated to paying back interest on the home equity line of credit.

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St. #402
New York, NY 10022
(212)752-4343 *31
rbailyn@premieradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.



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