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December 19, 2006

Market Historian predicts Dow Rally to 16,000

An article in Registered Rep magazine in November tells the market forecast of Curtis Teberg, a portfolio manager based out of Minnesota. Teberg puts the Dow at 16,000 by December 31st, 2007, a 33% increase over its value on October 1st. Wow! I’d better start loading up on blue chip stocks. Apparently I’ve already missed out on a 6.2% move in the Dow since October 1st! Or, is this an unfounded and spontaneous move? Check out the basis for this forecast and see how it sits with you.

Teberg shows the 15-month returns of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ beginning October 1st of pre-presidential election years and ending on December 31st of the following year. The results are commendable. The average return of the Dow Jones over the last 5 of these 15-month pre-presidential cycles is 35.15%. For the S&P 500, 35.44%, and for the NASDAQ 62.65%. The NASDAQ number, while it may seem high, is likely a reflection of a massive return between October 1st of ’98 and December 31st of ’99.

When asked why he suspects the markets rally after midterm elections, this was his response:

“Post-midterm elections are a time when Americans clamor for change. “We think if things are good, they’ll get even better; and, if things are bad, they’ll improve. “The changing of the office and the campaign rhetoric gets people excited about the markets.”

What do you make of this? When going back to 1926, rather than just the past 5 cycles, the results only produced one 15-month cycle (1930-1931) with a negative performance.

I think the theory could hold some legitimacy. We seem to be in one of those political cycles now in which many Americans are expecting change and feeling optimistic about the future. We saw a shift in Congressional power last month and the media is already offering predictions and speculation about the presidential race to come. Combined with the fairly sideways market which has bored investors since the tech bubble, perhaps we are due for this political excitement and the ensuing rally in the major averages.

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.

Russell Bailyn
--
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

December 12, 2006

Book Review: Finding the Hot Spots: 10 Strategies for Global Investing

Finding the Hot Spots is another excellent book from Wiley. David Riedel makes a convincing case at both the macro and micro levels for global investing. He argues that portfolio managers should adjust their exposure to international stocks to both diversify and minimize risk. This may sound counterintuitive as international investing is usually associated with an increase in risk, but Riedel feels that the global investment climate deserves reconsideration.

Riedel’s advocacy for international investing falls naturally into place by asking and answering economic questions which are specific to international markets. He shows how the government and regulatory environment can create some investment opportunities and block others. He also explains what future economic scenarios he views as seemingly inevitable that could push down the value of the dollar, improving opportunity in foreign markets along the way.

By the end of the book I had to rethink some of my assumptions about the risks associated with international investing. While it should be understood that global investing involves the risks associated with currency valuation, political instability, and regulatory problems, some of these may actually present opportunities. If you are relatively new or wish to demystify global investing, consider reading this book.

Russell Bailyn
--
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

December 11, 2006

Investing in Watches

I welcome anybody to participate in this discussion who has knowledge about watches. I’ve always considered a nice watch along with attractive cufflinks to be the essentials of male jewelry. I’ve got a gold bracelet as well but the truth is that I don’t care much for it. I wore a "Rado Jubilee" throughout college. The watch was high-tech ceramics, elegant in form, and worn well with a suit or more casual outfit. When my mother collabarated with me on an upgrade to a Rolex last year, it left me wondering about how well watches retain their value. Was this a good investment? Or should I have opened that additional IRA instead and even snagged a tax benefit.

My first thought was to research Rolex by visiting their homepage, googling it for owner opinions, looking at the prices of pre-owned watches, and speaking with enthusiasts about their own experiences. I’ve quickly learned that guys who wear pricey watches do indeed chat with each other and understand the cultures behind their watches. I’ve also learned some interesting facts about why Rolex watches have such a good reputation: they were awarded the world’s first wrist watch chronometer rating, and went on to set standards of excellence by creating a crystal crown which is both incredibly resistant to dust and pressure proof. Rolex also maintains a reputation for sponsoring major sporting events.

The watch I wear is from the “Oyster Datejust” collection. The band is stainless steel, the face is black and the curiously popular bubble which can easily identify a Rolex magnifies the date. So, overall, how do we feel about the merit of this purchase?

Through speaking with a few watch enthusiasts, it’s clear that most people don’t buy a watch like this strictly in terms of its investment merit. The question of whether it’s a good or bad purchase for appreciation potential is a backburner issue for most people who can afford them. That being said, a surprisingly large number of people were quick to point out the fact that Rolex watches maintain their purchase prices better than most other watches. In fact, some editions, such as the Daytona, which were produced in limited quantity, continue to appreciate at rates comparable with other good investments.

One person I spoke with had a particularly interesting take on his watch. “I bought it in 18k gold rather than sterling silver due to my conviction that gold is getting more expensive.” What an interesting idea, I thought, and with the amount of gold on his watch, I’m sure it gained nicely in value over the past few years.

So, what does the future hold for my watch? I will admit, it feels great sitting on my wrist and I sometimes feel like more of a gentleman when I wear it around. That being said, there are other days when I toss around the idea of selling it, or perhaps making an upgrade?

Russell Bailyn
--
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

December 03, 2006

Retirement Plans for Small Business Owners

Ever since making financial planning a career, I’ve developed this habit of listening carefully when people discuss how they save money. One of my observations has been that many people don’t save enough money to warrant any real concern about good investment practices. I don’t criticize these people. I try to switch their focus from past mistakes to improving future habits and developing a realistic strategy going forward. I’ve noticed that even those who have a good discipline about saving money tend to accumulate large balances in checking and savings accounts before looking for better returns. The problem with this isn’t really the extra percentage points that you may earn in a bond fund over a CD or savings account. Tax benefits are the primary reason self-employed individuals and small business owners should utilize retirement plans. Most of these plans provide for tax-deductible contributions and tax-deferred growth on investment earnings. Passing up on these benefits can truly hinder a financial plan. The best way to think of retirement plans is as protection for your money: you go to work each day and put in the time and effort necessary to earn money. Once you have some, it should go to work the same way you do. Why should money sit around, perhaps even losing purchasing power to inflation? If I decided to spend $3,000 on the Babe Ruth baseball card which I’ve drooled over since I was a child, you wouldn’t find it sitting on my kitchen table. It’d be locked in a protective case which could withstand harsh weather, children playing, natural disasters, or anything else. My focus today is on small business owners and the retirement plans which are available to them.

If you are self-employed, own a small business, or receive any other form of 1099 income, you can set up your own retirement plan. It will offer you an excellent way of sheltering a portion of your income from taxes. It will also allow you to put money aside for your future which will grow tax-deferred until retirement. Having a plan at your workplace can also help build your brand, improve your employee loyalty, and make those around you a bit wealthier in the process. While there are many retirement plans available to small business owners, I’d like to focus on three: the SEP IRA, profit-sharing plan, and self-employed (solo) 401k. None of these plans demand heavy costs to establish and, typically, they don’t demand too much in the way of paperwork or headache.

•SEP IRA – This is an excellent plan if you’re self-employed or in a family business. Contributions are made by the employer on behalf of the employees. In practice, this could be Dad contributing for Mom, Uncle Paul, and Aunt Linda. Also, note that Dad, as employer, qualifies as an employee as well. SEP plans are quite flexible in that the employer can choose the investment plan, the level of contribution (up to certain limits) and how frequently contributions are made. If the business doesn’t have a great year, Dad can elect not to make any contributions to the plan. This feature is sometimes viewed as a drawback because contributions must cover all employees. So, even if Dad is mad at Aunt Linda, he can’t skip over her in terms of making a contribution. He must contribute the same percentage of her salary as he does for himself and everybody else. Also, once a contribution is made, it immediately vests and belongs to the employee. If Aunt Linda quits one day after getting her 2006 contribution, she’s free to take that money with her upon leaving. Note: the maximum contribution in 2006 is $44,000, or up to 25% of compensation, whichever is less. The plan is easy to set up and doesn’t involve much in the way of complicated paperwork.

•Profit-Sharing Plan – These are similar to SEP plans in that contributions must be made by the employer rather than the employee. They provide a decent level of control to the business owner in that plan eligibility and vesting schedules are flexible and at the discretion of the employer. These plans are often used as incentives to retain employees and improve their performance. If the plan vests every five years, and the employee is getting a contribution equal to 20% of their salary, you can believe the employee, if they have a genuine interest in their financial lives, will work hard to maximize profits for the business and stay employed until the vesting period comes around. The key protective clause which exists for the employee is that a uniform percentage must be given to everybody. That doesn’t mean the amount has to be the same, just the percentage. If Dad is earning $200,000 and Mom is earning $100,000 and a 20% contribution level is determined for 2006, Dad must set aside $40,000 for himself and $20,000 for Mom. The other small detail about this plan is that the application is often comprehensive and generally has stricter regulatory requirements than a SEP IRA. This is ultimately to protect both the employees and the employer but can be a drag if you do all the administration yourself.

•The self-employed (solo) 401k - This plan is generally for business owners and their immediate family members only. It’s typically not for businesses that have non-family employees. Your business can be unincorporated, such as a sole proprietorship, or it can be an entity such as an LLC, partnership, or S-corporation. The employer (which is in many cases the employee as well) can make a tax-deductible contribution of up to 25% of compensation, capping out at $44,000. The employee can make a pre-tax contribution of up to $15,000/year as well in which the investment earnings will grow tax-deferred until retirement. With the profit sharing component, the solo 401k is often recognized for allowing the largest contributions when compared to other defined contribution plans.

Yes, there are other retirement plans which may be options for your business as well. You’ll want to seek more information about the specifics of each plan and how they fit into your business model prior to selecting a plan. The above choices are fairly easy to manage and could help many small businesses save money that don’t currently offer a plan. If you’d like more information about any of the above plans or wish to discuss your business model, feel free to send me an e-mail.*

Russell Bailyn
--
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31

*Keep in mind that distributions taken prior to age 59.5 are generally subject to ordinary income tax and a 10% federal tax penalty.

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

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Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc., a registered broker/dealer. Member NASD / SIPC. Advisery services offered through: Premier Financial Advisors is a NY Registered Investment Advisor. Form ADV part II is available upon request.

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