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October 31, 2006

Book Review: The Smartest Investment Book You'll Ever Read

I was recently sent Daniel Solin’s new book The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read for review. I enjoyed the book and it only took me a few hours to get through. The layout and presentation of material is excellent. In terms of the content, I have mixed feelings. Solin takes a big swing at the brokerage and product-based financial advising businesses. He especially enjoys exposing how they make money- a similar theme to his first book Does Your Broker Owe You Money?

I can appreciate some of his points as it is true that many investors just don’t understand concepts such as risk, return, expenses, and fees. Solin will hopefully reach some of these investors with his message about low-cost, index-style investing. That being said, I think Solin is a bit aggressive with his points. It’s interesting because I felt similarly when I glanced through his first book. Perhaps the fact that Solin is a securities arbitration lawyer explains his aggression and matter-of-factness. Many of the chapters end with a rearrangement of words which all make the same point: brokers, advisers, and portfolio managers are counterproductive and “Smart Investors” will stop doing business with them. Solin doesn’t want you finish this book without believing that index investing, and avoiding commissions, are the only logical way to invest your money. He disregards the brokerage business and claims that it not only lacks value, but is both detrimental and unethical to investors. Again, I’m 75% in agreement, but 25% worried about how this information will be understood by an ordinary investor.

I think the book may have benefited from a brief discussion about the differences between various financial professionals. I find there is often a very fine distinction between terms like “stockbroker,” “financial consultant,” “financial advisor,” and “financial planner.” When you bash a professional who lives off commission (as is Solin’s primary target) you are focusing on professionals who earn a living from transaction-based business and sales of investment products. Note that not every financial professional makes their living this way. Especially in today’s litigious environment, we’re seeing many smart investors using fee-based financial advisors and financial planners rather than stockbrokers. Plus, many stockbrokers are going back to school and learning how to really become “advisers.” In fact, you’re seeing many more people working with financial professionals, period, in light of the difficulty associated with good financial decision-making. So, while Solin’s point about picking stocks and actively managed funds as a waste of time is important, I would have liked to see more discussion about the reasons people choose to work with financial professionals. I can’t believe its all part of a giant conspiracy to steal money- rather it has to do with a general lack of understanding on behalf of the public about the financial services and personal finance arenas. A good advisor will explain the tax-rules surrounding an IRA, help a client plan for retirement, and track net worth with personal financial statements. These are real and important functions that some financial professionals- probably not your commission-earning stockbroker- will provide.

Russell Bailyn
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31


Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

The Truth Behind "Fee-Structured" Financial Planning

I’m writing this post because of an e-mail response I got from my friend JLP over at allthingsfinancialblog.com. First, let me point out that JLP runs an excellent blog- one of my favorites. I sent him an e-mail recently because he has a section on his site which links to others financial planners, specifically those who write blogs. I figured it would be appropriate to get a link on his site, being as how I’m a financial planner, a fellow blogger, and have a book coming out this summer with Wiley & Sons which features JLP along with about 70 other bloggers. But JLP asked me the ultimate question- a question which earns so much publicity that I could talk about it in my sleep- a question so great that it transcends time: do I earn commissions? Hesitantly, I explained that, while I’m predominately a fee-based advisor, my firm, as a comprehensive wealth manager, does earn commissions. I think I got a bit defensive and went on to explain in my e-mail some of the pro-bono work that my firm does. This morning when I sat down to write a post, it occurred to me that not every advisor who earns a commission needs to apologize for doing business this way. More importantly, I don’t think the average consumer truly understands what it means to be a fee-only financial advisor. Some advisors are touting their fee-based model of doing business when a commission could actually save their clients money. Allow me to disseminate the truth about this situation once and for all.

A “fee-only” advisor in its truest sense, should not be receiving asset-based fees. For example, take John Doe, a fee-only advisor who gets a 1.0 % annual fee for managing accounts. This means Mr. Doe gets $7,500 per year for managing a $750,000 portfolio- quite a sum! Now, the assumption is that the portfolio will avoid expensive funds by using low-cost index products along with individual stocks and bonds. However, if you really break it down, the client is not getting away even close to as cheaply as they could be. If John Doe were really crazy about costs, he’d visit a true fee-only advisor who would charge a flat rate, based on time, and produce a comprehensive financial plan or investment policy statement. Then he’d send the client off to a discount online brokerage to execute his trades. This would save the large majority of the above $7,500 fee. Some advisors do this (I’d estimate 5-10%) but most don’t simply because it’s much more difficult to make a living from writing financial plans. Plus, there are certain other complications that arise when trusting an online brokerage house with your retirement funds and other savings.

So now the question becomes, is earning an asset-based fee ethically superior to earning a commission? The answer to that is maybe, sometimes yes, sometimes no. I’ll explain why. When you earn a commission from an account, as the argument goes, you have no future incentive to continue servicing that account. Why should you spend two hours creating a report for a client who already paid the only commission which you will receive? You might as well get back on the phone and try to drum up some new accounts. This argument incorrectly assumes that all advisors are out for profit only and don't care at all about customer service. It also assumes that an advisor will try to push you into sneaky share classes which have deferred sales charges and all that yucky stuff. Is that true? Not at my firm... and I certainly hope not for the majority of advisors entering the profession. There are protective measures put into place by the NASD to ensure that unethical practices are as few and far between as possible. Also, part of the fee argument is that AUM fees (assets under management) are more ethical than commissions because the fee is correlated to the performance of your investments. This way, you can be sure that your advisor is trying to grow the account as fast as possible to protect both of your interests. Is this true? Well, AUM fees may ensure that your advisor is more active with your account activity (whether or not that is a good thing is up for debate). More importantly, it will not always be the cheapest option for the client, even if it does seem to line up interests. An up-front commission, especially with larger accounts that involve breakpoints, will often be cheaper than on-going fees which exit the account each year.

Ultimately, I believe that earning fees, both asset-based and flat rate, is the best way to do business. It does align client interests with advisor interests. However, I leave it at that, because to break down the conversation into finer detail is not worthwhile. One realizes after being in the business for a while that managing money is an emotional game. Clients need hand-holding, especially through rough patches in the market such as those we experienced after the tech bubble popped. Clients, at least at my firm, like to call up, stop by the office, bring in documents they don’t understand, all of this kind of stuff. The focus gradually becomes less on the fee (assuming it’s reasonable and competitive with other advisors) and onto the service aspect- specifically the trust which develops between a client and his or her advisor. This relationship between clients and respectable advisors is understated in the media and extremely important to recognize.

Ok, I feel better now that I’ve gotten all this out in the open.

Russell Bailyn
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th Street, #402
New York, NY 10022
rbailyn@premeiradvisors.net

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

October 25, 2006

Solving the Social Security Problem in America

Social Security is a federal program which provides retirement and disability income to workers through the collection of Social Security taxes. Every worker in the United States is responsible for paying these taxes during their working years and entitled to receiving benefit checks when they are eligible for retirement. That fact alone should make you at least a little bit curious about what all the recent chatter is about. The program is on its way to financial trouble because not enough workers exist to provide adequate benefits to the rapidly aging population. The most perplexing aspect of the Social Security problem is that the people who are most concerned about it really aren’t the same people who will likely be most affected by it. For example, I’m the youngest financial advisor at my firm and stand to lose the most from an underfunded Social Security system. At the same time, I not only talk about it less than my co-workers, but I don’t lose sleep over it either. That’s not to say I’m unaware that 12.4% of my paycheck goes towards these taxes, I’m just too far from receiving benefits to worry about it. Perhaps part of that irresponsible logic stems from how the system is organized. Rather than each taxpayer’s Social Security dollars getting earmarked for their own retirement, they get paid into a common pool of money allocated by the federal government. It’s a controversial system because workers currently in their 20’s and 30’s may not ever see the money they’ve paid in. It’s also impractical because of the baby boomer generation. Millions of people will soon be applying for benefits and the program needs some sort of reform if it wants to remain financially solvent. The irony of this problem is that Social Security was set up in part as a reaction to the Great Depression. Its inherent purpose was to provide a safe and stable income during retirement. When the Federal Insurance Contribution Act (FICA) was passed in 1937, the payroll tax needed to fund the system was only 2%, not a bad deal for a promise of secure income during retirement. Needless to say, that payroll tax has increased gradually up to its current 12.4% level. Some politicians may finally be realizing that raising taxes isn’t necessarily the solution. It’s more than questionable what the affects would be of raising FICA taxes another few percentage points. Some believe that would infuriate many hard working people, and potentially risk a shake-up in the economy. It seems to me that the system makes less sense each and every year it continues. So, what are we to do about all this? Keep in mind throughout this discussion that eliminating the Social Security system along with the taxes that fund it is not an option currently on the table. The government understands that they need to, at least in the short run, implement a uniform program which provides some form of income to older Americans.

There are a few solutions currently being entertained by politicians which would allow the system to remain in place and, at the very least, delay the lurking problems for another few decades. Here they are, along with a brief opinion about each of the ideas.
Raise the Payroll Tax – We’ve been trying this for about 70 years. It just doesn’t seem to work. It postpones the problem and costs us money in the interim. More importantly, raising taxes can probably never be the permanent solution because a lack of tax dollars isn’t the root of the problem. A more accurate prediction of demographic shifts is really what we need to properly assess the Social Security shortfall. If our temporary solutions don’t address the right problems, they’ll probably fail and become an issue again for our children and grandchildren. Not to mention, the concept of raising taxes doesn’t exactly get workers excited.
Raise the Retirement Age – Technically, you may begin receiving reduced Social Security benefits as early as 62 years of age. However, there are a bunch of annoying requirements you must satisfy to qualify for such a benefit. The age in which the system intends for us to take benefits, and doesn’t penalize us for doing so, is known as Full Retirement Age (FMR). FMR currently varies depending on when you are born but is around 66 years old. The official Social Security website estimates it’s likely to be 67 years old for those born after 1960.* FMR is the age politicians are referring to when they suggest raising the retirement age as a solution to an underfunded Social Security system. I don’t see much of a point to this solution since it’s really just a reduction in benefits. For example, let’s hypothesize that raising the retirement age to 68 years old for those born after 1970 would add 25 years of liquidity to the Social Security system. That would cost a person receiving $1,600 per month a total of $38,400 over those two years. So, all we really did was cut their benefit. Frankly, I’d rather see FICA taxes go up slightly than see a reduction in benefits. Raising the retirement age or reducing benefits doesn’t seem to be a solution, rather an admission of failure. Plus, it discriminates against those who paid their fair share and will have to work more years to receive their benefits. I throw out this solution along with raising taxes.
Reducing Other Federal Spending Programs – When I first heard about this solution I thought it sounded reasonable. We rearrange our priorities such that providing retirement income requires a greater percentage of our federal budget. Perhaps we can spend 1% less on the military and apply it to Social Security? If not the military, we could try reducing federal spending on education? Or maybe eliminate the Environment Protection Agency? Do you see the problem here? Our federal budget is already stretched out like silly putty and interest accrues on the money we borrow. If we cut something like subsidized housing projects to provide more Social Security dollars, it ultimately just becomes an equally expensive problem for workers. We can talk about altering federal spending to increase Social Security funding but I can’t really see it happening. Politicians already disagree on nearly every piece of spending which crosses Congress. If the solution to the Social Security problem becomes a shift of the problem to a different sector of the economy, it may as well not be implemented in the first place. Thus, I throw away this as the full solution to the problem but believe shifts in federal spending are inevitable and could be helpful in the process.
Earmark a portion of the money for individual participants – Have you ever heard the expression “Privatizing Social Security?” Well, this is what it means. In my opinion, it’s the only solution currently on the table which makes sense. Yes, there are reasons why this solution is problematic, but let’s entertain why it may work. The idea entails a portion (not the whole 12.4%, but a portion) of your FICA taxes to be deferred into a private account which is earmarked just for you. The individual worker then determines whether they want the money invested conservatively, moderately, or aggressively. This provides the potential for your money to grow at a rate much faster than the current system, where funds are invested in ultra-safe treasury securities. Consider the fact that from January, 1926 through September, 2006, the annualized total return for the S&P 500 index was 10.44%.** If our FICA taxes were growing at this rate, we probably wouldn’t have the Social Security issue on the table yet. The obvious concern would be that the stock market might not perform at the rate it has for the past 100 years. Social Security was set up to provide stability, not a fluctuating investment which could possibly be worth less than what you originally put in.

Just the amount of debate and interest this solution has created lends credibility to it. The heart of the issue is whether individual workers are capable of taking personal responsibility for a portion of their Social Security income. Further, is it safe to let inexperienced investors make decisions about how their Social Security funds should be allocated? Are Americans, overall, competent enough to make decisions about these sorts of things? Keep in mind that the private accounts aren’t intended to totally eliminate the government’s interaction. The government would still create the program, set up the investment options, and provide some form of investor education. Again, this whole concept is hotly debated and there is no way of knowing how the system would work in practice. What we do know is that the current system doesn’t work. We also know that an S&P 500 index fund would have, over the past 80 years, provided a much higher rate of return than Treasury securities.***

I’ve read up on professional opinions regarding the privatization of Social Security and they vary widely. This would make sense considering it’s nearly impossible to predict the events of the next fifty years. That being said, those with solid backgrounds in economics can hypothesize to some extent the sort of problems which are likely to occur. Bill Gross, one of the largest mutual fund managers of all time, feels that Social Security imbalances are curses of demographics and not financial funding.** He feels a refocus on to the causes of the Social Security problem could influence our choice of solutions. Ralph Nader, the former presidential candidate, believes that the Social Security problem is “overstated” and the use of “pessimistic assumptions” taints the reality of the problem.* Furthermore, he has advocated against privatization as he feels it would be dangerous because of stock market fluctuation and investment fraud. Our current president, George Bush, is a strong advocate of private accounts, pushing hard for it during his second term agenda. It is looking, however, like the American public is not ready to dramatically alter a system which is so fundamental to our lives.

The internet is loaded with resources for learning more about Social Security. For sheer accuracy and to avoid partisan politics, I would recommend a visit to the official website of the US Social Security Administration . After you get the cold, hard facts, the blogosphere will certainly help you form your own opinion about the matter. Because the topic has political undertones, and blogs originated in the political arena, there’s a surplus of sites having a similar discussion to the one we had above. I’m going to reference only authority sites which truly stick to the issues. Social Security Choice is a major proponent of reform and promotes the idea of privatization and establishment of individual accounts. They are part of a larger organization called the Club for Growth which believes that prosperity and opportunity come through economic freedom. Secure Our Future is a site created by students to spread the word to other students that the Social Security issue does affect them. As I mentioned in the first paragraph, younger workers will ultimately shoulder the burden of national debts, Social Security and otherwise, more than workers nearing retirement. You way wish to visit the AARP’s blog as well. They have taken a strong anti-privatization stance since the idea surfaced. They maintain that the system doesn’t need the sort of dramatic overhaul that would require private accounts. Further, they maintain that the process of privatizing accounts and allowing funds to be invested in riskier securities is dangerous to people who rely on Social Security payments. We don’t know at this point what the right answer is. What we do know is that a problem is brewing and avoiding it could jeopardize our retirement benefits.

Russell Bailyn
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St. #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31

*http://www.ssa.gov/retire2/agereduction.htm
**http://www2.standardandpoors.com. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
*** Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
**http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/04/markets/gross_social_security/index.htm
*http://www.ontheissues.org/2004/Ralph_Nader_Social_Security.htm

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

October 20, 2006

The Down and Dirty on Credit Cards

Americans tend to have mixed feelings about credit cards. They appreciate having easy access to funds, but largely resent the tendency created by credit cards to overspend. Credit Card issuers pollute the problem by pushing the use of credit on consumers and tangling a web of fees and interest charges along the way. However, having access to credit is an extremely important part of today’s financial world and helps to validate the consumer. It allows one to conveniently buy things located anywhere, and creates the ability to make reservations for services such as car rentals, hotels and restaurants. I would say that credit cards are already an item of necessity rather than luxury. It’s difficult to make it through a year as an active person without having some sort of access to credit. The convenient record-keeping and surveillance aspects of using credit over cash have made it an appealing choice for consumers and vendors alike. As this dependence on credit cards continues to spread, it’s important that one understand the benefits and drawbacks to credit cards, why they cost consumers so much money, and how one can avoid falling into credit card traps.

Before I embark on a rant about why credit cards are dangerous, I’d like to emphasize that responsible usage can provide you will all types of rewards- and I don’t just mean free flights and gift cards. One of the most important benefits is purchase protection. When you buy something for cash and it gets damaged, it’s very unlikely it can be returned, even if you believe it wasn’t your fault. When you pay with a credit card, you can challenge a transaction if a legitimate problem exists. Let’s say a vendor sells you a damaged product and you can prove it. You very well may be able to challenge that purchase because you paid for it with a credit card. Purchase protection is a huge advantage provided by credit cards. Establishing credit history is also an important benefit. By acting responsibly with your access to credit, you help shape the way future lenders will view your eligibility for loans. Credit analysis is tricky in that you must exhibit good financial habits when you don’t need a loan to establish good credit for when you do need one. If a bank is considering giving you a loan and they see you rarely make late payment or go over your spending limit, they’ll be more likely to extend credit to you. Finally, as we mentioned above, credit cards are great for organized record-keeping. Since all the activity can be viewed electronically, one can track what they buy, when it was purchased, how often payments are made, etc. from the convenience of any computer.

So let’s talk about why I refer to credit cards as dangerous. For me, and I’m sure for many others, spending a hundred dollars on the credit card is a very easy thing to do. I also find that it takes on a different meaning than pulling a crisp hundred out of my wallet. The simplicity of spending on cards, whether $50 or $500, encourages increased frequency, and larger amounts of spending. A good analogy is playing casino games with chips rather than cash. The reason casinos require the use of chips is to induce a game-like atmosphere where players focus on building up chips rather than thinking about the potential saving or spending opportunities for the money on the table. Perhaps we should put a disclaimer on credit card receipts which is similar to a pack of cigarettes: “Please be aware that you are about to spent $260. Please take out thirteen $20 bills, look at them, and think this through. Are you positive you can afford to do this?” Maybe that would curb some spending?

Most of the other drawbacks related to credit card spending involve the potential interest charges and fees. When we leave unpaid balances on credit cards, finance charges build up. The longer we wait to pay down those balances, the more we’ll pay in interest. For many consumers, the balance builds up quicker than anticipated and can take months or even years to be paid down. At points like this, when you stare at your dining room table and just wish it could be returned for something less expensive, you start to understand why that credit card is so evil. The table which cost you $1,000 quickly becomes $1,200 as your interest charges accrue and you get hit with a fee for paying the minimum amount due three days late. Situations like this either need to be avoided altogether, or carefully managed.

The Truth in Lending Act is a federal law created to promote the responsible use of consumer credit by requiring disclosures about its terms and costs. While I’d speculate that credit providers didn’t love this piece of legislation, I don’t think it has made a shred of difference in the care taken by consumers prior to obtaining and using credit. These companies don’t need to hide information about their terms and costs. They can spell out how they get paid in plain English and remain confident that the use of credit cards will either remain steady or increase.

At this point I’d like to break down the financial jargon often attached to credit cards so that it makes better sense. Interest charges are often quoted as APR (annual percentage rate) on statements and other mail you receive from credit card companies. When you first apply for a card, many promotions offer an introductory rate APR. This percentage is generally good for only the promotional period, typically six months or a year, and then defers back to your standard APR tables for purchases, balance transfers, and cash advances. You might not notice when and if rate changes occur if you don’t view your statement in detail. Many consumers look only at their total balance due each month and then figure out how much they feel like paying. The better thing to do is go over your statement for a few minutes each month, make sure the purchases look familiar, and the interest charges (if any) make sense based on stated APRs. Other terms besides APRs can change at the end of promotional periods. One should really try to take note of when those changes may happen. Also, an advertised APR for a credit card may appear to be low- say 12%. However, that percentage can often vary depending on a number of factors. First, if you transfer over a balance from a different credit card, the APR is usually higher. If you take out a cash advance, this often triggers the highest APR. And while you may not track the different interest rates you pay on purchases, balance transfers, and cash advances, the credit card company does. Ask them for a breakdown of your interest rate charges if you get confused.

Finance charges will also vary based on the calculation methods used to determine how much you owe. One part of that equation will be the APR discussed above. A lower rate will be better in almost all circumstances. Another big factor is whether or not new purchases are being included in your outstanding balance. If you carry a balance sometimes, you should look for a card which does not include new purchases. This will allow you a period of time, usually until the end of your billing cycle, in which you can pay off new purchases without them incurring any finance charges. Also, the computation of your balance, from which interest charges are based, can be calculated in different ways. The two most common methods are “average daily balance” and “adjusted balance.” The adjusted balance method is simply calculated by adding up your purchases and other charges each billing cycle and subtracting out payments and other credits. The average daily balance method differs in that your average balance is recalculated daily based on new purchases, payments, and other activity. When using this method, one needs to take note of the time between when charges are made and when they are paid down. While I tend to prefer the adjusted balance method, this should really not be the determining factor when evaluating credit cards. I would encourage you to focus more on making large, on-time payments and maintaining a reasonable APR.

Another important aspect of using credit cards is the fee schedule. For starters, I’m not a big fan of the annual fee. If you are paying it, there should be a good reason to do so. This could be a low APR, a card with special privileges, or a card issued to someone with less than perfect credit. In the latter example, the issuing organization is taking on more risk and the annual fee serves to compensate them for that additional risk. If your card doesn’t fall into any of those categories, ask your provider to remove the annual fee. In the world of credit, if you don’t ask questions, you probably won’t get answers. The two most common penalty fees on credit cards are for paying late and going over your spending limit. When dealing with responsible consumers, the credit card company will often waive a first late fee or over-the-limit fee. Don’t be shy, just call up and ask nicely for them to remove it. If they really appreciate your business, they’ll work with you.

Your credit limits are based on how responsible you are with your cards. If a consumer regularly charges up their credit card near the spending limits, it will more than likely to get any credit line increases. This is because credit card companies want the reassurance that you’re able to make large payments when and if necessary. Keeping a balance which is 20% or less of your available credit is generally considered within the responsible range of most lenders. Now, I’d like to share an interesting story regarding spending limits which illustrates how credit card companies look to make money. My original impression was that paying my balance in full each month would demonstrate good habits and lead to the most rapid increases in my credit lines. I learned this isn’t always the case because not as much money is generated off consumers who never carry balances. I spent a period of my life carrying balances from month to month, amounting to about 10% of my available credit. I noticed that my credit line increased faster when I left a small balance than when I paid the balance in full. My guess is that by demonstrating responsibility with payments, while, at the same time, allowing credit card companies to make some money off me, I became the ideal consumer.

A great way to start making changes in your financial life is evaluating the cards you currently use and getting new ones if your current ones aren’t fitting your needs. Before you apply for a new card or take advantage of a balance transfer offer, consider which credit card features appeal the most to you. For instance, if you are like the many other Americans who don’t pay their balance in full each month, try to get a credit card with low interest rates. However, if you charge everything to your card but always pay the balance in full, you might care less about interest rates but want a good rewards program. I have a friend who buys everything on his credit card, pays his balance in full, and at the end of each year cashes in his points for a plane ticket to Hawaii. Each person has a different style when it comes to how they spend on credit cards. Try to evaluate your spending so you can find benefits which truly coincide with your card usage. Card Web (www.cardweb.com) is a great site for locating the credit card which is right for you. They break down credit card offers into categories which help you better understand their benefits. They also have helpful payment calculators you can use to estimate how long it will take to pay down your balance, a question and answer section, and access to free newsletters.

If you don’t feel like applying for a new card, you can try negotiating the APR on your current cards. Because credit is a competitive industry, and issuing companies understand that you have the choice of either canceling your account or transferring it to a different credit provider, you constantly maintain some degree of bargaining power. If you call up and demand a lower interest rate, they are put to a decision of either granting your wish, or rejecting your request. Many consumers actually do not follow through with threats of closing their cards because they have anxiety about making changes. If this sounds familiar, try to overcome fears of financial change and make decisions which increase your bottom line. If you are having financial problems, credit providers actually will listen to you as well. If they reasonably believe that someone might not be capable of making payments, they might lower your interest rates and impart some undesired financial planning advice. I find it highly unlikely that they actually want you to be debt-free, but they’ll be mildly accommodating if a reasonable possibility exists that you will stop making payments.

So, from now on, don’t immediately throw away those credit card offers. Some of them may actually offer great terms, including a zero percent interest rate for the first year, if you stay within your spending limits and never pay late. You could even jump from card to card each year taking advantage of deals like this. I know people who do it. Be careful if you become too obsessed with capitalizing on credit card deals as this may impact your credit score or become an organizational issue. The best thing to do is find a card or two which work for your individual situation and make you happy. As a general piece of advice, try not to carry more cards than you can handle. I find that two or three is often plenty and usually recommend against taking on retail cards. These are the kind that gives you 10% off when you apply for them at the cash register. They tend to have very high interest rates so only apply for one if you pay your balances in full each month and spend often with that particular retailer.

If you want to surf the web for more education on credit cards, I can recommend a few more useful websites. Bankrate is a personal favorite of mine, for both credit cards and other personal finance advice. They have a very broad base of information including material which is appealing for beginners looking to improve their understanding of credit cards and experienced users who want specific offers or articles. In the blogosphere, check out Five Cent Nickel and AllThingsFinancial. Both of these bloggers post great financial planning articles including a bunch that talk about credit card issues. Keep that plastic under control!

Russell Bailyn
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St. #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31


Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

October 17, 2006

Are you Ready to Pick your own Stocks?

There comes a point in many investor’s lives when they decide to dabble in the stock market. I consider this to be a turning point in the life of an investor, a coming of age in which one graduates from a passive strategy and demands more control over their investments. Some people return to managed investments shortly after trying their hand at stocks because of a bad experience, while others have success and maintain permanent involvement with their investment decisions. Besides the potential for profitability, researching your own stocks has derivative benefits as well. First, your understanding of individual corporations and the economy in general will likely improve. Also, your journey into stocks may inspire a curiosity about other areas of the investment arena such as bonds and real estate. I remember back in college when I first took an interest in the stock market. I dedicated a chunk of my spare time to examining financial statements, listening to quarterly earnings reports and researching executives to find out who’s who. On the topic of research, it should be noted that the Google finance portal launched in early 2006 and is a must see for new investors. While many loyalists still prefer the Yahoo portal, Google Finance has truly unique features such as interactive charting and a search tool specifically designed to navigate the blogosphere. I remember when the market dabbling phase happened in my own family many years ago. My father installed a satellite dish on the roof of his dental office to give him improved access to stock quotes. Each time his stocks went up the computer would make a sound like a cash register. Each time they moved down you’d hear something of a train wreck. Ah yes, those were the days of dabbling. So, how should you go about picking stocks?

There are practically as many theories about how to pick stocks as there are stocks to invest in, so the first thing you need to do is determine an investment strategy which is right for you. Will you be the sort of investor who buys a stock for life? I respect this strategy but believe few people have the patience or desire to follow it. The opposite end of the spectrum includes day traders, who pick up stocks in the morning with the hope of gaining a few percentage points and selling the company that afternoon. I’d like to focus in on the value-oriented investment approach for a moment since this seems to be hailed by some of the most famous money managers including the master himself, Mr. Warren Buffet. Value investing entails finding companies with deflated stock prices which you sense could be undervalued by the market. There are numerous ratios which value investors will use to view their stocks against others in either the same sector of the market or some other benchmark comparison. One such example is P/E (price to earnings) which is a valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings. A low P/E ratio may indicate that a stock is cheap relative to its peers. Of course, there may be some other factor (such as a pending lawsuit) which can justify the low P/E ratio. Because of certain complexities in the stock picking process, some investors shy away from self-picking stocks and simply follow an established approach to investing. One such example is the Dogs of the Dow. There are variations to this strategy but let me to explain the basic concept: an investor picks the ten stocks out of the thirty in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the highest dividend payouts and lowest prices. Dividends, for the record, are company profits which are paid out to shareholders. At the end of each calendar year, you redesign the portfolio using the new, lowest price stocks in the Dow. Utilizing the Dogs of the Dow strategy would have given you an average annual return of 13.46% over the ten year period ended December 31st, 2005.* Please note that no strategy can assure success and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Before we continue I should make two things clear about the workings of the stock market:

•The stock market is exactly that: a market. When an overall lack of confidence pervades the market and feelings of uncertainty about the future exist, stocks can go down. You may even find a stock going down on a day in which the company announced good news. This sort of anomaly should not make you angry or even surprise you. It’s a part of the emotional roller coaster that comes along with following stocks.
•While many theories exist for how to obtain unusually high returns in the stock market, there is no proven method which will always outperform the major market indexes. You may find a theory which works for ten years in a row and then turns on its head the year you decide to try it out. You might complain that it’s just your luck, but many people will share these experiences with you.

One way to narrow down your list of stocks is by using a screener. Perhaps you read in a magazine that you should buy small capitalization stocks with high return on equity percentages. You might have no clue what this means, but you can still follow the advice. Yahoo and MSN both offer stock screening services in the investment research areas of their websites. You can plug in data such as company size, ratios, cash balances, earnings growth, etc. Within seconds, a list of stocks that fit your criteria will appear on the screen. You can then choose your stocks from the updated list.

Another great way to choose stocks is based on common sense. This strategy is rarely discussed in the financial community and I think it’s a good one. In 2004 I went shopping at a gourmet market on Long Island. While examining the expensive and well packaged goods I thought about how impressive this shopping experience was relative to others I’ve had. I also noticed they carried a large supply of health and organic foods; capitalizing on the trend to eat healthy which has blossomed in recent years. This kind of thought process can lead you to a company with real profit potential. The trick is capitalizing on the time lag between when a good idea is created and when it’s recognized in the stock price. It turns out the market I was shopping in was indeed a publicly traded company. Needless to say, the price was lower back then and the company has grown and matured since. The key is taking a position in a stock before positive news items hit the spotlight- certainly easier in theory than in practice. Once everybody else hears about it, you’ve probably reached the time to sell your stock.

My girlfriend provides another interesting strategy for purchasing stocks. At the end of each calendar year, she views her credit card statements and buys stock in those companies in which she spent the most money. At first I laughed at her method, but then I realized the brilliance of such simplicity. As a resident of New York City, she’s exposed to many new and exciting trends before they become nationally recognized. Further, by purchasing her stocks based only on where she shops, she isn’t trying to time the buying of a stock on a day when the price is seemingly low. This works out well since many investors fall into the emotional pattern of buying a stock when its price is high and selling it the second it dips down. Her strategy has led her into some very attractive companies and subsequently, attractive profits as well. One area to watch out for when utilizing this strategy is overcrowding a certain sector, in her case retail. This can be dangerous during economic cycles when certain industries tend to be more resilient than others to fluctuations in consumer spending.

Finally, a great way to research stocks is by reading the advice and experiences of other investors. This can help you avoid some of the otherwise inevitable problems which new investors tend to have. Some of these include:
•holding on to a winning stock for too long (being greedy)
•not knowing when to sell a losing stock (maybe it’ll come back syndrome)
•getting emotional over swings in the price of stock

There are so many great web resources for investors that it’s difficult for me to narrow down the list. You could start your research with a visit to TradingMarkets.This site is made excellent by the knowledge and experience of its contributors, many of which are seasoned financial services professionals. TradingMarkets has a breaking markets news section which updates every sixty seconds with story stocks. They also have a section called themoneyblogs which syndicates a variety of financial blogs onto their website. You can find my blog in there along with many others broken down into categories such as trading, real estate, and personal finance.

If you surf the blogosphere, Seeking Alpha should be on your visit list. Seeking Alpha is different from other sites in that the focus is on opinions rather than news. Rather than journalist coverage, you get primarily the thoughts of investors and financial professionals. In fact, many of the bloggers referenced in this book are also contributors to the Seeking Alpha Network. For those who may not follow financial jargon, alpha, in this context is a reference to how well a portfolio is performing given a certain assumption of risk. Some of SeekingAlpha’s notable features include:
•The ability to search for articles by typing in the ticker symbol or name of the company you wish to learn more about. This user-friendly feature makes the filtering process much easier.
•You can link to blog articles on specific areas of the market such as Biotechnology, Media, Gold, the Internet, and Japan.
•They have a comprehensive listing of earnings conference call transcripts. For the investor who does her homework, this becomes a great resource for figuring out what’s going on behind the scenes each quarter.

While Seeking Alpha is a more of a collective resource in terms of reading opinions, I’d like to point out some individual blogs which I visit as well.
TickerSense is run by the money management firm Birinyi Associates. The blog combines stock discussion with market analysis and current trends in an easy-to-understand fashion. They also have a subscription newsletter which provides stock picks.
Controlled Greed focuses on value-oriented investment strategies. Value stocks have prices that appear cheap relative to a few different analysis techniques. The name is a reference to Warren Buffet who said that controlled greed is an important quality for investment success.
2d trading is a cool blog for swing traders and short term stock pickers. The blog owner, Edgar Alcidi, is a technical trader who offers charting, daily commentary, and other helpful trading resources.**

Dabbling in the stock market can be both fun and profitable if you are resourceful and do your homework. Read about the experiences of others and pick an investment strategy which you are comfortable with. Remember to go back and review your strategy and risk tolerance every so often as well. A safe strategy is to make a budget which you dedicate to your dabbling and keep it separate from retirement accounts and other saving vehicles which are essential for your future goals.

As always, feel free to call or e-mail me with any questions!

Russell Bailyn
Wealth Management
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St. #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31


*Dogs of The Dow Annual return based on 10 dogs as of December 31, 2005
**Edgar trades for his own account.

Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.

October 13, 2006

Book Review: The Little Book of Value Investing

I've recently finished reading The Little Book of Value Investing by Christopher H. Browne. It was an excellent follow-up to The Little Book that Beats the Market." For those who are unfamiliar with these books, they are part of a relatively new series from Wiley called "Little Book Big Profits." The series features industry icons who share their investing philosophies through short and approachable chapters. So far, the two books which I've read both take on a value approach to investing. However, the authors use different styles and priorities when it comes to locating stocks. I'm looking forward to the next book in the series as well, "The Little Book of Indexing" which will be written by John Bogle and hopefully released soon.

Chris Browne, like Warren Buffett and Bill Miller, is a world famous Value investor. His father was a founding partner in Tweedy, Browne and Reilly, over 60 years ago. Back then, money managers weren't as transaction-focused as they are today. The stock markets were less efficient then, prior to rapid electronic trading and market makers creating the sort of liquidity for stocks we have today. To be in the business during the 50's and 60's, and stay in the business through the tremendous amount of change which has transpired, shows a certain degree of discipline and earns you a great amount of respect.

Browne emphasizes his discipline in the book by pointing out that a lot of the philosophies utilized by himself and his firm back then still apply today. Those principles, he says, can be taught, can be learned, and require patience to be successful.

I love the simple analogies Browne uses to convey his points. He takes a theme through the book of buying stocks which are selling at cheap prices as analogous to buying groceries which are on sale. This is a crucial element of Browne's claim that if one is patient and thorough, they can find stocks which have similar or higher growth potential to their peers while taking on less risk.

Another part of the book which makes it particularly valuable is the focus on international investing. Browne dedicates chapters six and seven to searching abroad for value and then continues the theme in chapters fifteen and sixteen when he talks about the risks (such as currency and accounting) which complicate stock-picking outside the United States. He makes some interesting points about using the valuation ratios of companies trading in developed countries as examples for international stocks in similar sectors which may be undervalued. That's all I'll say short of disclosing Browne's value tips. Grab a copy if you want to get the full story. The whole thing took me about three hours to read.

I am also delighted to see that authors on investing are starting to write books which are shorter and simpler to understand. As Browne shows, a book on Value investing doesn't have to be full of charts, graphs, and financial jargon. It can make points which are easily understood without all the confusing language. A great read!

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
14 E. 60th St., #402
New York, NY 10022
212-752-4343 *31
Securities and certain investment advisory services offered through: FIrst Allied Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer. Member: NASD & SIPC. Premier Financial Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. First Allied Securities & Premier Financial Advisors are not affiliated entities.



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