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March 29, 2006

United States Oil: The New Exchange-Traded Fund

The ETF community is buzzing over the upcoming release of USO (United States Oil) due out on Monday. When I first read about the creation of USO, the new commodity-linked fund, I thought the timing was very appropriate. Crude oil is the world’s most actively traded commodity. Regardless of its extensive trading volume, the average investor doesn’t try his hand at the futures market too often as a result of its complicated and risky nature. The best way for an investor to get involved in oil futures is through a mutual fund or exchange-trade fund which invests in a basket of commodity futures.

The Amex and United States Oil are waiting for the SEC to approve the issue, which will track the light, sweet crude, for trading (hopefully) April 3rd. In the SEC filing, there is a proposed rule change which is necessary for the issue to make it onto the open market. That rule change will allow “partnership units” in a commodity pool to be listed and traded. The Amex is trying to get the SEC to agree to the listing of USO which is the first division of partnership units created to trade commodity-based or commodity-linked securities. The reason for its complication involves the procedures of limited partnerships and the roles of both the general and limited partners. The general partner in this issue, as cited in the SEC filing, is California-based Victoria Bay Asset Management LLC, a subsidiary of Wainwright Holdings Inc, and controlled by Nicholas Gerber.

Information about USO’s underlying portfolio holdings will be available at www.unitedstatesoilfund.com. The site is not up yet, but should be pending SEC approval of the issue.

The NAV for USO is expected to track the spot price of West Texas light, sweet crude oil. West Texas oil is the most actively traded commodity in the world. This makes transactions within the ETF both cheaper and more liquid. The expense ratio, comprised mainly of management fees and brokerage commissions, should be in the range of 40-70 basis points.

The introduction of USO presents an opportunity to buy into a market which is not normally accessible to individual investors. There are individual stocks which correlate positively to the oil market, including petroleum companies, and the increasingly popular oil sands and oil refining stocks. These are undoubtedly linked, but not a good substitute for an oil futures contract. On that note, USO will act as a great portfolio diversification tool. An investor who understands the micro and macroeconomic issues surrounding oil demand will likely allocate a portion of money into this market.

For more information on exchange-traded funds, or any general questions, please e-mail me.

Russell Bailyn
rbailyn@gmail.com

This article is for informational purposes only. My blog is in no way a solicitation, or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment product. There are many risks inherent in investing and you should speak to your financial consultants prior to making any investment decisions.

March 22, 2006

A case study on 401(k) plan fees

This entry becomes increasingly relevant at a time when corporations continue to shift from defined-benefit retirement plans (pensions) to defined-contribution plans (401k). Corporations are encouraging their employees to self-direct their retirement assets to protect themselves from the possibility of retirement plans becoming under-funded. The issue is similar, on a smaller scale, to the federal government’s current problems surrounding social security and Medicare. It’s logical that a corporation would not be able to anticipate all future events and guarantee that their organization will be financially sound when the time comes to pay benefits. The automobile industry is a prime example of unstable economics (cyclical with high fixed costs) leading to under-funded liabilities stretching way beyond what could have been expected. The solution to an unpredictable corporate climate in terms of retirement planning is improving the quality control of the company 401(k) plan. What employees and employers should focus on is if they are getting the best possible value from their plan provider.

The reason employees elect to defer compensation into a retirement plan is because it provides them with an income source during retirement. Defined-contribution plans, along with social security, will provide the majority of retirement income to current workers. The returns on investment, along with the tax benefits, are the reasons we invest the money rather than leaving it as cash in a checking account. Take the following analysis as an example of the hampered performance fees can cause: the difference between an annual total return of 5% and an annual total return of 7% on a $100,000 investment, net of fees, over a 25-year period, is $204,108. Those two percentage points can make a big difference over the long run. Two percentage points also happens to be an accurate figure of the amount of money deducted for expenses each year in a typical 401(k) plan.

I’ve decided to focus on fees in my discussion rather than on investment options because I truly believe that active management, over the long-run, doesn’t have any certain benefits over passive management. That being said, whoever is the cheapest provider, assuming adequate investment options and reasonable customer service, deserves to service your firm. This is the essence of my argument. The department of labor parallels my sentiment in a study about employee benefits- specifically 401(k) fees. Please reference the article at the end of this entry if you’d like more in depth information. You can also contact me since I clearly enjoy this topic.

Let’s discuss what these 401(k) plan fees are and who ultimately pays them. The first group of fees is related to administration costs. Operating a retirement plan requires prior approval as a “qualified” plan. This refers to the ability of a corporation to adhere to the tax-code necessary to offer plans with the tax-deferred status inherent in retirement plans to its employees. This level of complication requires record keeping, and consulting, from both accountants and lawyers. Administration may also include a portion of the customer service including fielding questions, and providing further advice on retirement.

Investment fees are the next (and generally the most painful) expense. You should note that human resource directors and CEO’s don’t get bills from investment companies. Investment fees are either drained from the funds as a percentage of the total amount of assets invested, or paid in sales loads and commissions. This is why we always want to make a distinction between the total investment return NET of fees and the returns published in brochures and presentations. Investment fees aren’t listed on the monthly statements you receive. They are listed on plan adoption agreements and other expense paperwork which you need to request directly from your plan administrator. It may also be on file with your HR department.

Servicing fees generally detract from the investment return as well. This fee could be required for something as simple as a portfolio rebalancing, or for accessing the loan features of your plan. These are the sort of fees which jump up and bite you because you didn’t even think to ask about them when the plan was established.

It’s important to be able to distinguish how each group of expenses is being paid. Does your plan have a “third party administrator” which deals with the record keeping? If so, is that fee included in the percentage points being deducted for investment fees? These fees can be a grey area for corporations who ultimately will end up paying the fees by means of internal expenses. Sometimes a corporation will even retain their own third party administrator, rather than go through their plan provider. It helps the corporation maintain control and only need to seek fund vendors to use for investment options. This is often a good idea because by “unbundling” the product, it’s easier to track the fees.

Now, I’d like to address a very specific type of management style known as the “separate account” which is often abused in the 401(k) world. This management style can be complicated to explain so I’ll use a very simple analogy. When you’re young, you learn that buying a mutual fund makes sense because you get hundreds of stocks and bonds bundled up into one investment. It gives you both diversification and minimized transaction costs. A “separate account” is similar in that minimizes transaction costs for large pools of 401(k) employees. Rather than combining the fees of hundreds of plan participants, we combine all the money (generally mutual funds) into a pool of assets and manage it as one, larger account. This (in theory) will minimize management expenses and transaction costs. In practice, this only benefits very large corporations. Let me back that up with a quote from the Pension and Benefits Welfare Administration:

“In general, direct use of retail mutual funds or the provider’s institutional funds is the most common investment arrangement among smaller plans, those with assets of $50 million or under. Mid-sized plans, those with assets of $50 million to $500 million frequently add commingled accounts. Finally, separate accounts are found among very large 401(k) plans, those with assets over $500 million.”

The point here is that to recognize the cost savings, the plan has to be big- very big. Yet, we still see separate account management for small and mid-sized firms. Part of the reason for this is the internal management fee which separate accounts charge and is generally not disclosed on plan documents. If you ran a cost analysis on a small or mid-sized firm, you’d probably find the employees are better off with individual mutual funds accounts outside of the separate account.

Every retirement plan has to fit around the corporate culture of the firm. Sometimes a bunch of plans will fit and all accomplish the goal. What’s most important to investigate prior to adopting a plan (or when considering alternative plans) are the fees. If you have questions regarding your personal 401(k) investments, or your company’s 401(k) plan, I’m all ears.

Russell Bailyn
(212) 752-4343 *31
rbailyn@gmail.com

*http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/publications/401k_employee.html

March 21, 2006

Google Finance is Fabulous!

As an avid follower of financial news, I must commend Google on the recent launch of Google Finance. Even though it’s still in beta stage, it’s already a top financial news resource. I’ve saved time and energy utilizing the new G-resource in my first day of use.

The interactive charting is very convenient. It’s what Yahoo has been in need of for the past few years. Finding good (free) charting is something discussed regularly by both financial professionals and personal finance gurus. Even the professional software which I pay for doesn’t allow me to scroll along the chart and pinpoint relevant news in such a convenient fashion. Granted, the news becomes more scarce on the charts as you scroll back into 2005, 2004, etc, but so does its relevance as an investor.

The news is set up just like you’d expect from a smart search engine- with outbound links to the most relevant sites. This isn’t particularly different from Yahoo, or CNN money, except for the fact that Google organizes by topic. This is so convenient! The ability to cluster into topics makes research and filtering an easier task. Plus, Google tends to have the most variety (the largest network) of news services which it pulls from.

The blogging and discussion group features are a personal favorite of mine. As a financial blogger, I really enjoy feedback from a wide variety of sources rather than all-powerful television or print newspapers. The discussion groups have the potential to blast past the Yahoo message boards which are currently very popular. The discussions have feeds (XML) to keep you up-to-date on discussions which you express interest in. This is in addition to a blog directory which can be searched to find various opinions and hard-to-find information for a company you may be researching. Basically, you’re getting true choice over how you receive your news- no slants, political or otherwise. That flexibility, in addition to search capability, allows you to really hone in on personal preferences.

The other note-worthy features are the company management feature, and portfolio design tool. The company management feature is extremely elaborate and integrated. Google has incorporated relevant images (such as photos of the full C-suite) into the bios. You can easily link to inside transactions, compensation details, etc. If Google feels that another site provides a good resource for certain information, an outbound link will be present. The portfolio feature allows investors to track their favorite financial products, with the exception of individual bonds. Naturally, your portfolio appears with updated news and pricing when you have a Google account and log into the finance section.

Go Google! You’d better keep rocking the boat because there are a lot of skeptics out there!

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
(212) 752-4343 *31
rbailyn@gmail.com


March 16, 2006

Investing in Water? A Deeper Look into PHO

The PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (PHO) is up 17% so far in 2006, blasting past both broader market indexes and related sector indexes such as utilities, natural resources, and clean energy. In fact, the S&P 1500 Water Utilities Index rose 46% in 2005. Why the sudden interest in water? Let us explore news and statistics on the sector first and then discuss why PHO is the best way to play it.

The surfacing concerns about water aren’t so much about the supply and demand for water as a resource. Water covers 70% of the earth and gets continuously recycled and reused. The issue is taking the abundance of water on the earth and making it usable for consumption. While 70% of the earth may be covered in water, 97% of that water is filled with salt and other pollutants. The water must be purified prior to distribution and use. Salty water is of little to no value in industrial consumption, or to the agriculture industry which consumes large quantities of purified water through irrigation systems. The bottled water industry itself provides generous revenue streams to companies that research water treatment methods and more efficient means of purification. Of the remaining 3% of available, non-salted water, a very limited amount is readily available. Aha! A supply shortage- this is when you should start thinking profit and exploring what the best investment product may be.

How can an investor play the water sector? This is something I’ve been exploring for a while. Prior to December 6th, the inception date for the PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio, I was still researching mutual fund managers with interesting utility plays. This was no silly idea. Judith Saryan of Eaton Vance (a very global thinker) has put together a nice little fund (EVTMX) which would have returned you 30% on your capital in 2005 in addition to an increasing dividend. However, this is hardly just a water play. It strays from utilities to give energy exposure and even communication service providers. The PowerShares Portfolio really hits the sweet spots of the water industry. They seek companies involved in every angle of water purification. This can be a very “green” concept in that pollution is a major detriment to clean water. PHO invests in environment-friendly companies such as the California Water Service Group (CWT) that both purify water and provide facilities and technology for water testing and inspection. They also look for companies that treat water for use in industrial processes. These companies do not operate exclusively in the West. China and the Middle East have a huge demand for pure water, both for industrial purposes and basic consumption. The ability to transport water greatly affects countries such as Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon where arid conditions make agriculture quite difficult. Finally, PHO recognizes the growing bottled water industry. Remember the days when people turned on their sink for a glass of water? Even I don’t do that anymore.

The PowerShares Portfolio is based on the Palisades Water Index, a quarterly rebalanced portfolio of 25 stocks created in 2003 by Elias Azrak of Hydrogen Ventures, LLC. The PowerShares Portfolio may vary it’s weighting on different stocks in the sector and maintains a 20% flexibility in straying from the sector when appropriate. Please note that while PHO is passive as compared to a mutual fund, the ETF tends to re-weight and switch holdings regularly with its rigorous rebalancing schedule. The intellidex system used by PowerShares tends to favor smaller capitalized stocks with aggressive growth rates rather than large-cap stocks. This has been a great strategy thus far for PowerShares but adds a degree of volatility for investors. There is a more passive ETF that tracks water stocks in addition to utilities offered through iShares (ticker: IDU). This index is much less popular than the PowerShare. In fact, the average trading volume on PHO has recently crossed 500,000 shares/day, impressive for an ETF launched just three months ago. PowerShares also tends to be an expensive ETF (PHO runs you 60 basis points). While there is a cost to rebalancing and obtaining securities for an index, I believe the higher expenses of PowerShares are well worth it. It’s still cheap relative to most mutual funds.

Economists estimate $500 billion being spent in the next 25 years on research and infrastructure related to clean water initiatives. Another $100 billion is estimated for researching health concerns regarding pollutants which affect water and other natural resources. I’d think about that and add some weight to PHO in the portfolio.

Russell Bailyn
Premier Financial Advisors
(212) 752-4343 *31
rbailyn@gmail.com


This article is for informational purposes only. My blog is in no way a solicitation, or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment product. There are many risks inherent in investing and you should speak to your financial consultants prior to making any decisions.

March 01, 2006

March Newsletter on company retirement plans and systematic investing

Welcome to March! I’d like to focus in on two concepts this month- systematic investing and company retirement plans. These are topics that affect all of us and our futures. If you have further questions at the end which pertain to your individual situation, please e-mail me. I understand tax season may present some questions as well.

My first recommendation is that each person set up an account with “systematic withdrawal” options for themselves. This is similar to a phone or electric bill which may debit itself automatically each month from your checking account. You’ve probably noticed systematic withdrawals are an easy way to remember to pay annoying creditors. The same principal can help you pay yourself. If you don’t save on a monthly basis, you probably aren’t hitting your savings targets. The reason for this is saving in small increments tends to be easier and more successful than saving in lump sums. The same logic explains why a person may not hesitate to buy coffee and a newspaper each day, but would likely hesitate to pay up front for an annual subscription even if it saves money.

My next slice of advice applies to retirement plans two types of retirement plans, the 401(k) and 403(b). Most people (with the possible exception of self-employed individuals) probably have at some point had the opportunity to contribute money (usually through a salary deferral) to these qualified retirement plans. They allow you to contribute money on a pre-tax basis and have the money grow tax-deferred until retirement. I do a lot of work advising individuals and businesses on how to maximize the opportunities presented by these plans.

If you have a 401(k) plan at work you should review:
• Am I contributing enough to get the matching contribution? Some companies don’t offer this option in which case don’t worry about it.
• Have I recently gone over my asset allocation? You should be sure not to invest in “tax-free” investments in these plans b/c they offer tax-free growth on all investments. Save tax-free bonds and other tax friendly investments for your individual, non-IRA accounts.
• Am I contributing as much as possible to my 401k or 403b before placing other investments? You should maximize your contributions into tax-deferred accounts such as the 401k and other IRA’s before setting up taxable investment accounts.

If you have a 403(b) plan you should be asking the following question:
• Which 403(b) plans are offered by my institution? Are they all “tax-sheltered annuity plans,” or do they offer a mutual-fund platform? Mutual fund platforms are currently less popular (because they joined on to the tax code later) but offer (in my opinion) a better product. If you or your relative works for a school system, university, hospital, or non-profit, have them research what 403(b) plans are available to them. I can’t begin to tell you the money our clients have saved by tweaking their retirement plan options.

Thanks, and please e-mail with any questions.

Russell Bailyn
(212) 752-4343 *31
rbailyn@gmail.com

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Disclaimer

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. This website is inteded to be educational and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
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